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New Market Study Published: Czech Republic Telecommunications Report Q4 2012

New Fixed Networks research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 

Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/05/2012 -- The Q212 update to the Czech Republic Telecoms market report contains BMI's forecasts for the mobile, ARPU, fixed-line and internet sectors through to the end of 2016. It also contains analysis of new developments in the country's telecoms industry. Our analysis and forecasts are based on market data for Q311 provided by fixed-line incumbent and mobile operator Telefónica O2, Deutsche Telekom-owned T-Mobile Czech Republic, Vodafone Czech Republic and cable operator UPC Czech Republic. We also incorporate latest data from the ITU for the fixed-line and internet markets relating to the end of December 2010. The Czech mobile market continued positive growth in Q211 and Q311 with 0.4% q-o-q growth in each quarter and net additions of 118,000. This took total subscriptions to 13.731mn and a penetration rate of 130.3%. Vodafone has been the primary source of growth, while T-Mobile has continued to report subscriber losses in 9M11. However, we do not believe this six month market performance signals a return to growth for the market, with penetration still above 130% and operators increasingly focused on the migration of subscribers from prepaid to postpaid subscriptions, we expect medium-term growth to be sluggish, with periods of growth and net subscriber losses. Mobile penetration in the Czech Republic has largely remained flat during the past two years and is not expect to change significantly in the next five years. BMI forecast an average annual growth rate of 0.5% over the next five years, bringing the mobile subscriber base to just under 14.123mn in 2016, a penetration rate of almost 132.5%. There are however risks to this outlook. First is the Q411 announcement by the fourth largest operator U:fon that it had entered voluntary insolvency due to the high burden of its historic debt. It stated that it will continue to deliver services while undergoing debt restructuring. However, with its growth rate extremely slow, limited regional presence and the constraints of its CDMA network, BMI considers its growth outlook to be limited in the medium term, which may affect creditor negotiations. In addition to the potential of competition being affected by the loss of an operator, we note the potential negative effect of the ongoing eurozone crisis on all the country's telecoms markets. While the eurozone crisis is already factored into our forecasts and analysis, there is downside risk from our current core scenario of a disorderly break up or exit of particular states, from the eurozone. There are also positive trends in Czech Republic's mobile market, stemming from our forecast of growth in 3G services. Operator investments have been accelerated in H211 and 2012, with all three operators extending coverage and capacity. 2012 will see the launch of commercial HSPA+ 42Mbps services, which should boost subscriber growth and which has, until now, been limited relative to other markets in the region. With this operator investment, we expect one of the majo

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