Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/20/2012 -- BMI is forecasting a recession in Iran in 2012 and 2013 as the Middle Eastern country struggles to maintain itself economically in the face of sanctions against its crude oil exports, the primary source of revenue in the country. Despite this, BMI's Shipping team projects growth at the country's primary container port Bandar Abbas, albeit at less than 1%. The sanctions against the export of Iranian crude are having wider reverberations, and are redrawing shipping lanes as importers of Iranian crude look to other markets to provide their energy needs.

Headline Industry Data

- 2012 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput growth forecast 0.6%, and to average 3.0% per annum to 2016.
- 2016 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 3.24mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2012 total trade forecast to endure contraction of 14.5%.

Key Industry Trends

2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran

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BMI believes that the latest round of sanctions imposed upon Iran, which are aimed specifically at the country's crude oil exports, including its transportation, will shake up the crude oil tanker sector in 2012. Tankers operating between Iran and Japan, South Korea and India will be the most affected as vessel insurance dries up and these countries look to comply with the spirit of the Western sanctions. Although China is the largest importer of Iranian crude, it seems likely that the Chinese government will ensure that imports continue unabated.

Shahid Rajaee Port In Second Expansion Phase

Iran's Port and Marine Organisation (PMO) for the Hormuzgan province expects to complete the second phase of expansion at the Shahid Rajaee port by March 2013 it was reported in April. Nearly 1.1mn cubic metres have been dredged at the port, which is 1,500 kilometres from Tehran. The PMO hopes to complete the dredging by June 2012 and begin work on a new 1,100 metre-long jetty. Capacity is expected to double from 3mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) to 6mn.

Iran and Iraq To Establish Joint Shipping Firm

A spokesperson from Iran's Ports and Maritime Organisation confirmed in February that the governments of Iran and Iraq have approved a plan to establish a joint shipping line. No further details have been released about the project, although it is expected that the new company will be created by a group of private companies. The move is part of effort to expand trade between the two countries.

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