Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 08/31/2012 -- BMI View: Peru's agricultural exports grew by 16.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in value terms over the first quarter of 2012 to reach US$915.mn, according to Ministry of Agriculture data. Higher export prices for a number of key products, including coffee, mangoes, avocado, asparagus and evaporated milk, helped to push up revenues alongside increased export volumes for coffee, grapes, animal feed, evaporated milk and bananas. The Peruvian government continues to work hard to build agricultural exports through PromPeru (the Commission for the Promotion of Peru through Exports and Tourism) and ADEX, the Peruvian exporters association. The Netherlands, the US, the UK, Spain, Hong Kong and Russia are all significant export markets for Peruvian agricultural products.
- BMI believes that Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over the medium term on the back of a growing consumer base and robust mining and infrastructure projects in the pipeline. Domestic demand will be a larger driver of growth. We see GDP coming in at 4.8% y-o-y in 2012 and 2013 and at 4.9% in 2014.
- We forecast that sugar production will pick up by 6.0% y-o-y to reach 1.10mn tonnes in 2011/12. Continued investment in renewing fields, new plantations and improving processing efficiency, along with good weather and plentiful rains, look set to see production increase by a further 5.5% y-o-y in 2012/13 to take production to 1.16mn tonnes. Over our forecast period to 2015/16, we expect sugar production to rise 28.9% from its 2011 level to 1.34mn tonnes.
- We believe that coffee production grew by 16.6% y-o-y in 2011/12 to a record 5.15mn bags, boosted by good weather conditions and high prices encouraging investment in plantations. We see production falling by 7.8% y-o-y in 2012/13 to 4.75mn bags, due to the off year in arabica production, which occurs every three to four years. Over our forecast period, we expect growth to return and forecast coffee production to increase by 20.2% on the 2011 level to reach 5.31mn bags.
- We forecast an increase of 4.2% y-o-y in poultry production in 2011/12 to take output to 1.12mn tonnes. Over our forecast period, we expect continued strong growth in poultry production and forecast output to reach 1.30mn tonnes in 2016, up 21.5% on the 2011 level.
- Demand for beef has slowed in recent years owing to high prices and the increasing popularity of poultry. We forecast an increase in beef consumption of 1.2% y-o-y in 2012 to take demand to 174,100 tonnes. Out to 2016, we see beef consumption growing by 7.3% on the 2011 level to reach 184,600 tonnes.
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