Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/19/2014 -- We expect economic growth to remain sluggish, characterised by a slowdown in private consumption, net exports, and investment.
President Nicolas Maduro has consolidated his power in recent months, bolstered by a strong PSUV performance in the December 8 elections, and will continue Chavez's policies of elevated social spending, resulting in sizeable fiscal deficits.
Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.
Major Forecast Changes
We have upgraded our Venezuelan fiscal deficit forecast for 2014, from 9.6% of GDP to 7.8%, due to reforms which will reduce some types of government spending.
T aking into account the most recent data made available by the Banco Central de Venezuela and our outlook for the oil sector, we have downwardly adjusted our current account surplus forecast for 2014, from 3.2% of GDP to 1.9%.
Key Risks To Outlook
Upside Risks: Higher than expected oil prices and more investorfriendly policies could see real GDP growth exceed our forecast.
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