Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/01/2014 -- We continue to expect a slowdown in oil sector investment, an uncompetitive export sector, and a cooling residential real estate sector to weigh on Norwegian GDP growth in 2014-15.
The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years. While we have not yet seen signs of a full-blown housing crash, prices are falling, and we will be vigilant for signs of a more pronounced correction in the coming quarters.
We believe that the newly elected Conservative-Progress minority coalition government is unlikely to agitate for major changes in policy in the near future.
Major Forecast Changes
We have lowered our 2014 real GDP growth estimate for Norway to 1.6% from 2.0%, owing to weak Q413 data pushing down the base effect.
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