Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/25/2014 -- We remain positive about the Pakistani economy, emphasising the strength of the recovery, the beneficial impact of IMF-supported reform initiatives, measures to overhaul the energy sector, and the upcoming privatisation programme. We are maintaining our existing growth outlook - GDP estimated to grow by 3.4% in fiscal year 2013-14 and forecast to accelerate to 4.0% in 2014/15, but believe that risks have tipped somewhat to the upside.
Upbeat Outlook For Reforms And Manufacturing Output
We are impressed by evidence of manufacturing strength, particularly in the food, beverage, and tobacco sectors. Textiles are attracting Chinese investment and benefitting from the country's newly acquired GSP-plus (Generalised System of Preference) status. Energy reform will in time reduce chronic power cuts and in passing increase the country's coal imports, an important plus for the ports and shipping sector. We believe private consumption - representing around 85% of Pakistan's GDP - will be the main motor of growth, with investment and net exports playing a smaller role.
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Given there is no change in our GDP forecasts, we are holding our existing and modest projections for port activity. That said, however, it needs to be noted that cargo handling will still be a little busier in 2014/15 than in the current fiscal year.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014/15-tonnage throughput at the Port of Karachi is forecast by BMI to grow by 2.9% to 40.588mn tonnes.
- 2014/15-container throughput growth at the Port of Karachi forecast to increase by 3.0% to 1.613mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2014/15-tonnage throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 3.0% to 26.224mn tonnes.
- 2014/15-container throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 1.5% to742,357TEUs.
- Pakistan's total trade forecast to see real growth cooling to reach 3.5% in 2014/15, down from an estimated 9.3% in the preceding year.
Key Industry Trends
The Pakistan Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Pakistan.
BMI's Pakistan Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Pakistan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Pakistan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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