Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/11/2014 -- BMI View: Peru is advancing its ambitious power sector expansion plans as demand for electricity continues to grow rapidly - driven by the needs of the country 's energy-intensive mining industr y and healthy growth in consumer demand . While our macroeconomic outlook for Peru remains below consensus based on our bearish stance on global metals prices, which is in turn a consequence of our below-consensus view on economic growth in China, we maintain that th e country's econom y remain s one of the most dynamic in Latin America. By extension , we forecast that Peru will register robust growth across all segments of its power sector thanks to continue d efforts to mine and export its significant mineral wealth. We also note that the government is eager to stimulate invest ment in power infrastructure, and is working hard to generate interest in a host of attractive investment opportunities .
Key trends and developments in the Peruvian electricity market:
- While we maintain our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America over our forecast period, it is important to note that our macroeconomic outlook has long been below-consensus and BMI's Country Risk team expects real GDP growth to continue to hover at around the 5.0% over our forecast period.
- Indeed, we revised down our 2013 real GDP growth projection to 4.8% in December 2013 and although we expect a modest acceleration in real GDP growth in 2014 - to 5.1% - as new mining projects come online and investment begins to pick up following more accommodative stance taken by the central bank, we emphasise that a return to the 6.0%-plus expansion rates registered between 2010 and 2012 is unlikely. This view is predicated on our bearish outlook for metals prices, which is in turn a consequence of our below-consensus view on economic growth in China, the world's largest copper consumer. Indeed, a slowdown in mining activity would not only damage the...
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The Peru Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Peru Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
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