Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/26/2014 -- An uptick in offshore investment is providing some relief from the overall downward trend in oil and gas production from the UK. While we see a small boost to oil production from 2017 onwards based on current projects in the pipeline, without new discoveries and given falling volumes from mature fields, this will likely only stem the decline or lead to a small-scale and temporary increase in the country's oil production . While the industry has responded positively to the end of a moratorium on shale gas development, as well as to incentives, strong opposition at the local level has already disrupted drilling plans. These challenges only reinforce our view that shale gas is unlikely to make a significant contribution to total gas output before the tail- end of our ten-year forecast period to 2014- 2023 .
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The main trends and developments we highlight in the UK oil and gas sector are:
- Oil and gas production continued to fall in 2013. Crude oil, natural gas liquids and other liquids (henceforth referred to collectively as oil or liquids) output fell to 863,000 barrels per day (b/d) - a 9.1% decline from 2012 output and the UK's lowest recorded level since the 1970s. Gas production fell 6.2%% to 39.3bn cubic metres (bcm).
- While we expect the crude production to continue to decline into 2017, we believe the rate of decline will ease in 2014, with a number of small fields to be brought online according to projects currently in the pipeline. This will partly offset the reduced output from the region's mature fields. As such, we expect a 4.9% production decline year-on-year (y-o-y) for 2014, as opposed to the 9.1% decline in 2013. We forecast oil production to decline to a low of 777,680b/d in 2016.
- From 2017 onwards, we could see a small increase in oil production as new projects come online and hit peak production. We forecast that production could increase from 777,680b/d in 2016 to a high of 877,870b/d in 2018, before slowly declining to...
The United Kingdom Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for United Kingdom including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's United Kingdom Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the British oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the British oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the British oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
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