Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/23/2012 -- The Singapore Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Singapore's economic outlook of falling house prices. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Singapore retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a hard landing in China as well as ongoing eurozone woes on the Singapore consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Singapore retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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Singapore comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms significantly for risk.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 25.9% between 2012 and 2016, from US$4.18bn to US$5.26bn as demand grows for higher-end product categories such as smartphones, HD TV sets, Blu-ray DVD players and entertainment notebooks.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government initiatives that should put the semiconductor and electronics industries on a long-term path to renewed viability.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI retains its full-year growth outlook of 2.6% for Singapore. Although the country allayed fears of a sharp slowdown in Q112, posting above-consensus 9.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth, year-on-year (y-o-y) growth was considerably more muted at 1.6%. While we acknowledge that Q112's 9.9% q-o-q print indicates that the economy does retain some momentum and will now avoid a technical recession, we point to the 1.6% y-o-y figure to underscore the point that a longer-term slowdown is still in progress.
- BMI expects private consumption to continue to support the overall economy with a 5.3% expansion in 2012 as real wages get a boost and inflation moderates. However, we believe that the property sector is at a major inflection point where a negative wealth effect will begin to set in, putting a damper on consumer sentiment in a country where 87% of Singaporeans own their homes. Nevertheless, we forecast that private consumption will grow from its current 38.6% proportion of the economy to 48.1% by 2021.
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