Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/13/2013 -- Recent economic indicator readings in Ukraine suggest a more aggressive economic slowdown earlier than we anticipated. As a result, we have downgraded our real GDP growth forecasts to -0.1% and 1.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, from a previous forecast of 2.0% and 0.9%. Additionally, Ukraine's GDP per capita is expected to remain one of the lowest in Europe over the decade ahead. Although there remains enormous unrealised potential in terms of political reform and economic growth, without institutional and economic reform, Ukraine's current economic growth model will prove unsustainable over the coming 10 years.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2013 per capita food consumption = +11.2%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +52.7%
- 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales = +12.1%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +59.4%
- 2013 soft drinks value sales = +12.0%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +56.3%
- 2013 mass grocery retail = +14.9%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +66.8%
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Key Company Trends
Multinationals Target Ukraine Biscuit Sector: Mondelez International, the snacks division of the newly divided Kraft Foods Group, announced plans in October 2012 to launch a second biscuit factory in Ukraine. Under its Ukrainian expansion drive, Mondelez will commission a new biscuit production line for its Vedmedik Barni brand. The announcement comes as competition heats up with Nestle which is also believed to be eyeing the growth opportunities in the Ukrainian biscuit sector. It is understood that the company plans to invest UAH244mn (US$30mn) in a bid to expand its Ukrainian confectionery business. According to our data, per capita consumption of sweet biscuits in Ukraine is forecast to increase from about 10kg in 2010 to about 12kg by 2017.
Auchan to Expand in Ukraine Solo: In autumn 2012 it was reported that French retailer Auchan has announced plans to sign a loan agreement with the IFC under which the body will provide a US$75mn loan to the retailer for expanding its business in Ukraine. Subsequent to the loan approval, Auchan will open up hypermarkets and shopping malls in the cities of Kiev and Odessa by 2015. It is understood that Auchan will continue store developments in the country without the input of its local partner Furshet. According to officials at Auchan the retailer is now developing in Ukraine on its own.
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