Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 09/27/2012 -- Despite short-term challenges posed by the slowing domestic and external demand, we remain optimistic about the Turkish consumer in the longer term. In the current quarter, the country remains ranked second in our proprietary Risk/Reward ratings for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which covers 15 key regional markets. Turkey scores particularly favourably in terms of its long-term rewards, indicating the substantial potential for the growth of food and drink volumes as well as volumes, especially if the country's operating risks are addressed in a timely fashion. Headline Industry Data (local currency) ???? 2012 per capita food consumption value sales = +6.4%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = +7.0%. ???? 2012 alcoholic drinks sales = +10.4%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = +9.5%. ???? 2012 soft drinks sales = +11.4%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = +12.3%. ???? 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +12.7%; forecast compound annual growth to 2016 = +12.6%. Key Company Trends Turkish Ice Cream Market of Interest: Shortly after Unilever's announcement that it is building a new ice cream plant in central Turkey, in March 2012, US-based ice cream parlour chain Cold Stone Creamery was reported to be planning to enter the Turkish market, and was reportedly looking for a guarantor to open its label in Turkey. The firm has been advertising in local newspapers and, if it is successful in finding a native investor, it plans to launch its first Turkish store in 2014. The Turkish ice cream market grew by a year-on-year (y-o-y) margin of almost 30% in 2010. Sabanci Looking to Change its Retail Cooperation with Carrefour: According to NamNews, Turkish retailer Sabanci is attempting to alter the terms of its food retail joint venture (JV) in the country with French Carrefour. Sabanci has argued that Carrefour has not done enough to help the JV capitalise on opportunities in the Turkish market. The JV runs 216 supermarkets and 27 hypermarkets in Turkey, and saw sales of EUR1.8bn (US$2.4bn) in 2011. Sabanci's CEO commented: 'We don't want to continue the business as it is. At the moment we are 40% [owners] and we don't have the management control. We're not happy with the performance of the company so we want to change the situation.' Key Risks To Outlook Downside Risks Prevail: We continue to see downside risks to our current forecasts, on account of the country's precarious external position and a deteriorating global macroeconomic backdrop. Cooling domestic demand will also have a major impact on the overall growth, given that private consumption currently represents in excess of 70% of Turkey's GDP.
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