Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/01/2014 -- BMI's report on the Turkish tourism market examines the expected trends across inbound and outbound travel, news in the hotel sector, growth in industry value and changes in the market in terms of travel infrastructure investment and other supporting developments. Overall, the future is looking relatively positive for Turkey's inbound and outbound tourism, with growth expected across the board over our forecast period to 2018.
2013 saw several large-scale political protests against Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan which, although unlikely to lead to a change in government before scheduled elections in 2015, could still mark a turning point in his decade-long stint in power. While the situation appears to have largely calmed, any escalation in domestic tensions could deter both potential tourists and potential investors. Similarly, should conflict in neighbouring Syria spill across the border into Turkey, we could see a further impact on the tourism market.
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Despite these concerns, the inbound travel market remains healthy, with arrivals increasing by 3.5% in 2013 to reach 32.9mn. Over the subsequent five years, we expect to see annual arrivals increase by around 4% per year, meaning that by 2018 Turkey is likely to welcome 39.3mn visitors per year. Europe is likely to continue to dominate the inbound and outbound tourism market; however, over the longer term, we expect to see further diversification away from the West and more towards the Middle East. This diversification will help to balance out any declines should Europe see a return to the conditions of the global credit crunch.
Turkey is experiencing solid annual GDP growth, which is serving to boost private financial consumption, one of the key indicators of spend on outbound travel. Outbound travel grew by 4.8% in 2013, and following growth of around 7% between 2014 and 2018, we expect the number of annual outbound travellers to reach 8.9mn by the end of the current forecast period. This demonstrates the substantial potential of Turkey's outbound travel market.
Investment in supporting infrastructure is also expected to continue throughout the forecast period, with development under way across the road, rail and air travel networks. As such, Turkey presents a valuable opportunity for hotel developers, with a great deal of potentially lucrative real estate along coast lines remaining relatively underdeveloped. The country already benefits from an extensive travel infrastructure and is well placed to keep up with the expected increases in both inbound and outbound travel.
Key trends and forecasts include:
- The number of hotels and other accommodation establishments in the country is expected to increase steadily throughout the forecast period to reach 6,550 properties in 2018, with many of the top global hotel groups opening new properties.
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