Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/06/2015 -- BMI maintains its cautious outlook for Venezuela's shipping sector. Economic growth in Venezuela will remain extremely low, and may drop into negative territory in the coming quarters given the poor business environment, high inflation, and on-going market distortions associated with price controls and the country's complex system for acquiring foreign currency. We are forecasting GDP growth of 1.2% in 2015, but we believe that risks continue to be weighted to the downside.

Sluggish private consumption will mean that container volumes are kept low. Household purchasing power will continue to erode, as inflationary pressures remain elevated. Until money supply growth falls, we believe that inflation will remain elevated, and real private consumption growth will remain subdued. More fundamentally, Venezuela's slow-growing economy, and particularly its dwindling industrial base, reduces employment and household incomes, further reducing growth in private consumption.

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Oil exports, which the country depends heavily on, have been stagnant, due to a poor investment climate which has kept much-needed infrastructural improvements on hold. Our Oil & Gas team estimates the production volume of crude and related products to have grown by only 0.9% in 2014, following a contraction of 0.9% in 2013. We believe that this will weigh on the trade account over the coming months, although over the longer term the reduction in imports associated with Venezuela's currency devaluations will begin to reverse this trend, with positive implications for headline GDP growth.

Headline Industry Data

- 2015 Puerto Cabello tonnage throughput growth forecast at 1.1%.

- 2015 Puerto Cabello container throughput to grow by 2.9%.

- 2015 Port of La Guaira tonnage throughput growth forecast at 0.40%.

- 2015 Port of La Guaira container throughput to grow by 3%.

Key Industry Trends

Shipping Asso ciation Bemoans Drop I n Volumes: Eddy Meayke, President of the Shipping Association of Venezuela,...

The Venezuela Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Venezuela.

BMI's Venezuela Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Venezuela.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan shipping market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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