Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/23/2014 -- We maintain our view that growth in Venezuela will be lacklustre in 2014, as high inflation suppresses household purchasing power, a poor business environment constrains private sector investment, and stagnant oil production caps growth in net exports. We are forecasting growth of just 1.2% in 2014, above our 2013 estimate of 0.8%, but well below Venezuela's average over the past decade of 5.8%.
BMI also believes that Venezuela's current account surplus will continue to deteriorate over the course of 2014, thanks to stagnant export revenues and a structural limit on the scope of further import declines, despite depreciatory policies recently adopted by the government, which have seen the bol?var sharply fall in value and made foreign goods more expensive in local currency terms.
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The macroeconomic picture in Venezuela is set to have a detrimental impact on the country's shipping sector with muted growth forecast for the two main ports in Venezuela in 2014. The country's largest port Puerto Cabello is set for a tough 12 months and we anticipate it will see throughput growth of just 0.21% in 2014, while the Port of La Guaira will fare little better with tonnage growth of a negligible 0.30%.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Puerto Cabello tonnage throughput growth forecast at 0.21%. Slow growth is expected to continue over the medium term, averaging 1.28% over our forecast period.
- 2014 Puerto Cabello container throughput to grow by 1.70%, and to average 2.75% over our forecast period.
- 2014 Port of La Guaira tonnage throughput growth forecast at 0.30%.
- 2014 Port of La Guaira container throughput to grow by 2.50%.
Key Industry Trends
New Freight And Logistics Agency Created
A new agency has been created at the behest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro with the intention of simplifying customs procedures and streamlining the freight and logistics sector in the country. The establishment of Corporation National Logistics and Freight was...
The Venezuela Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Venezuela.
BMI's Venezuela Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Venezuela.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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