Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/12/2014 -- Core Views:
- Vietnam's political outlook is stable and we see room for substantial reform over the coming years, particularly with regard to the business environment. Moreover, Vietnam is increasingly opening up to the international community, which will be good for longer term development. That said, Vietnam has a poor record in terms of the protection of human rights and there continues to be a lack of freedom for the press and media.
- Latest GDP figures show that the Vietnamese economy grew by 5.0% y-o-y in Q114, and we believe that our 2014 real GDP growth forecast of 5.9% remains in sight. Indeed, we believe that increased macroeconomic stability, combined with pro-growth policies will help the economy accelerate from 2013 levels. Key downside risks to this view include a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in China as well as the stalling of the country's reform drive.
- Vietnam's external sector will remain stable over the coming years, as a combination of strong macroeconomic dynamics, the ongoing de-dollarization of the economy and subdued inflationary pressures result in broad exchange rate stability. Moreover, we highlight that strengthening trade dynamics, combined with rising foreign direct investment - on the back of significant improvements in the business environment - will continue to bolster the country's external accounts.
- The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) eased monetary policy on March 17, cutting the refinancing rate by 50 basis points to 6.50%, but we forecast the SBV will remain on hold for the remainder of this year, notwithstanding downside risks.
- We forecast that Vietnam's fiscal deficit will narrow over the forecast period to less than 1% of GDP in 2018 from 4.7% in 2013. The improvement in the government's fiscal accounts will come on the back of both higher revenue growth as well as a more tempered expenditure outlook. That said, we see risks to these forecasts on the back of potential for the government to have to absorb...
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The Vietnam Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Vietnam and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of Vietnam's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of Vietnam's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
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