Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/21/2014 -- In line with BMI's view that the Vietnamese economy would accelerate forcefully into the final months of the year (see 'Economy Picking Up Pace', October 4 2013), the latest data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO) showed that the economy expanded by 6.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q4 2013. This translates into full-year growth of 5.4% for 2013, just slightly above our forecast of 5.3%. The latest GDP reading, combined with the strong set of economic data we have seen in recent weeks (accelerating foreign direct investment inflows, remittances, and merchandise trade exports), have reaffirmed our conviction that the Vietnamese economy will begin 2014 on a strong note.
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In welcome news for Vietnam's freight industry, officials from firms such as Nike, Levi's and Zara attended a public briefing in November 2013 over the status of the trade discussions between Vietnam and the EU. One of the matters discussed was the fashion industry's push to mitigate the global 'rules of origin'. The rules of origin can result into a significant amount of money for the goods coming from Vietnam to the EU. According to the apparel manufacturers, the modern trade policy must not punish firms for manufacturing goods in more than one country.
However, Europe's domestic textile industry is against the relaxation of tariffs. 'There are still very high tariffs and significant trade barriers in place which make it hard for importers and exporters to do business, and the free trade agreement could potentially solve this issue,' said Tim McPhie, a European Branded Clothing Alliance spokesperson (CNBC).
In 2014, the freight picture by mode is a little mixed but is steady across the board in terms of growth. Leading the way over the next 12 months will be the road freight sector with healthy 6.05% tonnage yearon- year (y-o-y) growth anticipated. The maritime sector is also forecast for strong growth with the Port of Da Nang set for slightly higher annual growth than the larger Port of Ho Chi Minh City (7.00% compared to 6.06%). Slightly lower y-o-y growth is pencilled in for both the rail and air freight sectors (3.12% and 3.00% respectively).
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 rail freight tonnage is set to increase by 3.12% to 6.73mn tonnes.
- 2014 air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 3.00% to 189,210 tonnes.
- Tonnage handled at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City in 2014 is forecast to grow 6.06%, whereas tonnage handled at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 7.00%.
- 2014 road freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 6.05% to 811.35mn tonnes.
- 2014 total trade is forecast to rise by 6.55%.
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