Washington, DC -- (ReleaseWire) -- 11/12/2015 --BENNETT: And Bo Polny is here. Polny is financial trends forecaster & publisher of Gold 2020 Forecast. He publishes three reports. The first one is called Polny's 2020 Gold Index; the second one is Polny's Exclusive Turn Dates, and the third is The 2015/2016 Stock Market Index. Bo, welcome.
POLNY: I appreciate you having me on the air. So thank you so much.
BENNETT: Before we get into your forecast, I quickly just want to recap some of the accurate predictions that put you on the map. You predicted that stocks would drop, beginning in July, and that there would be a huge drop in August, and that September would be rather uneventful, all of which happened. What are some other key turning points you accurately forecast, so our listeners can get familiar with you?
POLNY: Initially I started doing all my work with gold, and in 2011, we forecast the exact date where gold came in at just over $1,900, and then prior to that, we forecast the $49 top for silver. And so those were some of the key points. Mostly the cycle of work that we do, especially with gold, allows us to really be successful picking tops. And then with relation to the stock market, what I do is I overlay gold's cycle onto the stock, which gets basically I call them inflection points or specific turn points or key index points, where you use them like as a start point, and from that point, we have been pretty successful in the stock market.
BENNETT: Many gold bugs out there, even just simple gold investors, have pointed to manipulation in the market as the reason the spot price has remained so lethargic. Your calculations are based entirely on cycles, and not market interventions. Does that mean that you disagree with those who think that the price of gold is being artificially suppressed?
POLNY: Well, no. The price of gold is being held down, but that's because the cycle is being held down for just a little bit longer. But there's not much time left, and so eventually the cycle ends and then the gold market completely breaks out and all the manipulation that people have been describing within the gold community, that goes away, because now gold's going to find its true value in the world. Gold is something that's precious, but there's only so much of it; it's not paper. And they can manipulate paper 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, but eventually the bubble bursts. You can't manipulate paper for 100, 200 years; it's not possible. It's never happened, and it won't work. And those cycles basically clearly say that that's not going to happen, because gold is soon going to come to the surface as God's money, basically as the money that basically will represent true value.
BENNETT: Of course, gold took a big hit on Friday, with the so-called positive unemployment numbers.
POLNY: Let me tell you, all I'm looking at is a massive deformation that's going to explode out of here like you've never seen before and we're going to see, before the end of the year. I know this is hard for everybody to believe, but the cycle is saying that we're going to see potentially new all-time highs for gold before the end of this year. So this is a whiplash to take everybody out before it goes vertical. I think that our cycles are saying that we're extremely at a very exciting point for gold, because I believe this is the final leg, final push to the downside of the manipulation that you've basically been describing, because off this low, we're going to see some spectacular moves for gold.
BENNETT: And you think that's going to start when?
POLNY: In November.
BENNETT: Let's talk about that, what you call a November crash. Tell us what you think is going to happen, and how you came to that decision.
POLNY: You've got to go back hundreds of years with this. Basically this specific cycle is a monetary cycle, okay? It started in 1764. You go 1764, and on my web page, there is a video part one, and it illustrates how cycles and life work. This is the crazy, part, Dawn; nothing, nothing is random, not even close. Everything has already been written, and life needs to happen, to replay itself, and that's really what a cycle is. You know, if you look at time lines and you've got a circle, 360 degrees, well, guess what? God's time line is 360 days. They're identical, they're circles. All it is is circles upon circles upon circles, some small, some large. This monetary cycle goes back to 1764. Every 21 years, there has been a cycle, there has been a monetary issue, a deflation, a recession, a depression; there's been a crash every 21 years, from 1764. There's been other ones, but specifically the cycle, the 7 year times 3, so it's a 21 year cycle, so the last one that came in indicating that in the year 2016, which is next year, Dawn, we're going to have a cycle low, a massive cycle low on the stock markets across the entire world, and it started in July 20th, the third week, when we had an interview on that time point.
POLNY: It was supposed to drop into the end of August; it did beautifully. We had a turn point September 2nd, which was an up cycle into October, the second to third week of October. And then on October 14th, I specifically did an interview with Future Money Trends, which I had already scheduled during the summer, when we spoke on the first crash, I said, 'Let's do the second interview on the 14th or so of October.' And the reason was because that was an inflection point. And if you look at pretty much all the world markets, aside from the US market---if you look at Japan, Tokyo, Germany, Switzerland, it can just go on and on, all the markets, and even Australia, I think, is the weakest right now, but all of them turned around the 26th, so about a weekish later off that 14th of October turn date. So from October 26th, you have a turn down. And as of now, that down is potentially supposed to take out the August lows, and it's supposed to break the August lows and then go deeper. So now we've further confirmed a bear trend that we're expecting to see in the world markets, because basically we have a seven year cycle that started in 2009. The wedge on that cycle broke, as you can see in video part three on my web page—we talk about those wedges, we have all the world markets—and those wedges all broke in August. When the wedges all broke in August, you get a drop, you get a rebound. The rebound was September, October, and now you're going to get a right shoulder failure and a collapse straight down. So on the technical chart that's called a head and shoulders, and it's a right shoulder failure, and then you've got a straight, vertical drop down into a new low, which therefore should take out the August, 2015 lows.
BENNETT: You're putting yourself out there, Bo. What happens if you're wrong?
POLNY: Well, I know they're going to be dropping in November, because this is our 34th turn since November of last year that has been on target, so we've had 33 turns so far.
BENNETT: You seem to be also targeting by dates. When you're calling for a major market meltdown this month, do you have a date?
POLNY: Yes. Yes, we already have another interview date scheduled with Future Money Trends before the year ends for a cycle low that we're calling for in the stock markets, because basically they're just another turn point. In life, it's like if you read the Bible, 'That which has been will be again.' What we do is we look at the markets, and once you find the specific cycle where life replays itself and you overlay it on the present and then look forward into the future, and we did that as of last year with the markets, so we created a stock market index, and we've laid out 35 or 36 turns until year end; so far we've 34. And so all of the people that have been with us have seen all the turns happening.
BENNETT: Can you give our listeners at least about the idea when the date is this month?
POLNY: Well, it's going to come in before year end, and it's going to basically get worse until the end of the month, let's just put it that way. And we'll do another interview before the year end, saying we're going to see it optimal, we're going to see another bounce, just like we're seeing right now. But we're supposed to see a drop. The question is the magnitude of the drop; how much will the drop be? Because cycles don't give you magnitude, like in price, but they give you the overall energy of how bad it could be. And potentially this drop, if a wedge breaks-- and on a seven year wedge, we've got a seven year break. If this takes out the August lows, just from a charting standpoint, that confirms the bear trend, because a bear trend is lower highs and lower lows, okay? So if you look at the chart so far, you've got, as of July, on virtually all the world markets, even the S&P and the Dow, even though we've pushed up significantly in the U.S., they're still all on lower highs. They could be a double top, but we're not there yet. And the only one is the NASDAQ, which has pushed a little higher, and that could be considered a false break out. But it's not confirmed on any other world markets. You look at all the world markets; they're all on, like, weak right shoulders right now. So it's just because the U.S. prints all the money, they can push it up higher, but technically everything is set; there's still a cycle that's going to be heading downwards into month end. We'll have to see how low the price goes, but right now you've got a high in the summer time, and now we've got right shoulders in virtually all the world markets. And then if the cycles proceed as I'm thinking they should do, it should drop, and if it takes out the August low, that would further confirm the bear market on the world markets. If we take out the August lows, now you have a lower low with a lower high in October.
BENNETT: Speaking of worldwide economy, the Bank for International Settlements, BIS, pointed out that certain major economies were seeing this sharp rise in debt to GDP ratios, which are well outside of historic norms. When the real price of money is close to zero, people seem to borrow and then worry about the consequences later. Do you think that's the biggest risk to the world economies, the popping of this bubble?
POLNY: Well, that's the thing; all the money that's been printed, before it would be by country, but now that the bonds and the treasuries are being sold across the world... that's why when I do my stock index, I include the world markets, because it's really fascinating how they're identical. One could be a little stronger, one could be a little weaker, but overall, you can literally lay all the world markets over the top of one another is what I really do, and they're all identical, there's really not a difference. The U.S. and Germany are a little on the stronger side, Australia and Canada on the weaker side right now, but there's no difference in chart patterns. So if the charts are the same, then basically it just tells you that everything is interlaced extremely closely together across all the world.
BENNETT: Most financial forecasters recognize macro trends playing out, and then make predictions accordingly. But they also recognize the difficulty of specifically timing anything, due to countless variability, because there always seems to be a monkey wrench thrown into what they consider a predictable pattern. Is it possible that your November forecast might experience a monkey wrench?
POLNY: A monkey wrench? I would say there's a chance, but that it would be extremely small. And the reason is because all of this is basically timelines, and they're seven year timelines, and there's a biblical reason for that. There's a cycle high scheduled for gold in 2016. And I'm talking big numbers, okay? I still expect a potential new high for gold this year. I know it's hard for everybody to believe, but you have to go back cyclically. In 2001, the gold bowl started, and seven years forward, in 2008, you had $1033 gold. Guess what? That's seven years later. So now you take another seven years from 2008 and you land at 2015. Well, guess what? The cycles are saying we're supposed to new all-time highs for gold this year. Now, the cycle could push forward a little bit and go into next year, because ultimately this current bull cycle that I see forming very soon here should come in next year, 2016. That'll be a new high, and that'll be pretty powerful, pretty impressive. And the point is if gold goes up like that, you have to look at the cycles. And anybody can do this right now; go look at July, 2015. At that time, the Dow made its top, correct? That's when we did our interview with TRUNEWS. And there was a top on the equity markets. So what did gold do then? Well, it went down to 1070ish, but that was a low. So they're opposite cycles. Gold typically, for many years, has been moving with the stock market. The stock market would go up, gold would go up. That was true until the year 2011. And so I look at only a cycle and patterns, because it doesn't matter what the world's going to do, because the world's going to play the cycle. After 2013, you have to look, and about in February or March, gold dropped and it free-falled straight down, whereas the equity markets went up, and they've been rising ever since 2013. So they've been inverted trends since the time point of 2013; that's when the cycle had switched. Now we've got opposite cycles, which means that in July, gold bottomed, and the stock market topped. Well, look what's happening right now when you're on the right shoulder; gold's on a low, and stock markets are on a top.
BENNETT: I know that in the last 10 years, gold is typically very strong in November; it's actually averaged an average return of 4.93 percent. Do you agree with that?
POLNY: I would say that the monthly cycles, yes, they will be up into November and untypically strong that month, and even into December, typically. That is a time of more strength for the precious metals. I would agree, yes.
BENNETT: With past crashes a lot of market bearers and even gold investors have been surprised that investors around the world have put their money into dollars, rather than to gold and silver. Do you think that's going to happen here in November and also going into the weakness of 2016?
POLNY: Again, looking at chart patterns and cyclicals, you know, we talked about the world equity market, and all across the world, we have all the different equity markets that are all on what we describe, in terms of charting, an ascending bearish wedge formation. So what that means is they for seven years have been going up within a channel. The channel broke. And once the channel breaks, it pauses, and then it falls down and collapses. So you have a crash cycle forming into 2016, and with the cycle going back 252 years, this cycle's further confirmed. So it's a massive, huge cycle on the back end, confirming a shorter term cycle in the front end. Both are pointing to a cycle low in 2016. Then you've got the top of the U.S. dollar. Well, the dollar is on the same thing; it's on an ascending bearish wedge formation, like the world equity markets. So even though it's risen, the dollar actually topped out in March of 2015, which is this March. And this is crazy, but check this out; the dollar topped on pi. What's pi? 3.1415. I was doing a seminar, a talk in Singapore, saying, 'The dollar should be topping right here,' and it did. And then from that high point, it's come up right now, but it's still on a lower high. So it's either going to double top, which I don't think it will, or it's going to top out right about here and start to reverse and fall, and that's going to then put in a right shoulder drop. And so again, the dollar is on an ascending bearish wedge formation, and it's going to fall with the world equity markets, specifically across the all the world and the dollar are going to go down. And gold and silver are in descending bullish wedge formations, and gold already broke out on October 9th, came back and recapped the break out, so it dropped. Off of this low, it's going to go vertical, take out the wedge vertically and spike and spike and spike until year end, and people are going to be shocked what gold does, and silver, specifically silver.
BENNETT: Let's talk about silver. You're predicting a three digit silver movement next year. Is silver going to out-perform gold?
POLNY: Absolutely, because you've got a 75 to 1 ratio right now, so the ratio has to get smaller, right? In maybe the next year, it might get in the range of maybe 40 or 30 to 1, and that will double the price. So if gold doubled, silver would quadruple, in terms of price. So silver, yes, will out-perform gold, just because it has to, based on the ratios.
BENNETT: So will silver start to make its move this month, maybe correlated with the crash that you're predicting?
POLNY: Yes, absolutely, because if we look at the cycles again, you've got a low in July and you've got a low in precious metals again right now. Well, what do you have in stock markets? You have two highs; you have a right shoulder coming right now in world markets, maybe a double top across the U.S., and then you've got a high in July of 2015. So basically at both points, they're opposites. And so people who are thinking that silver and gold are going to go down this time, with the stock crash, are going to be dead wrong, because the cycles inverted in 2013, March.
BENNETT: Can you give our listeners an idea of what you think silver and gold might do by the end of '15 and then also by the end of '16, per ounce?
POLNY: Well, before the end of this year, I still believe gold and silver are going to make new highs.
POLNY: It's hard to believe. I believe we're talking above 2000.
BENNETT: That is hard to believe.
POLNY: I know it is, I know it is. And that's the thing; we're going to break out of a five year wedge, five years of price suppression is going to explode vertically, okay? This is not going to be some gentle ride to the top.
BENNETT: Bo, I want to thank you so much for being on the show. We're going to have you back.
POLNY: Thank you.
BENNETT: Bo Polny's Gold 2020 Forecast can be found at http://www.gold2020forecast.com/
All data sourced through Bloomberg.
Securities offered through Western International Securities, Inc., Member FINRA & SIPC. Bennett Group Financial & Western International Securities, Inc. are separate and unaffiliated companies.
About Dawn Bennett
Dawn Bennett is CEO and Founder of Bennett Group Financial Services. She hosts a national radio program called Financial Myth Busting http://www.financialmythbusting.com
She discusses educational topics and events in the financial news, along with her thoughts on the economy, financial markets, investments, and more with her live guests, who have included rock legend Ted Nugent, as well as Steve Forbes and Grover Norquist. Listeners can call 855-884-DAWN a as well as take podcasts on the road and forums for interaction.
She can be reached on Twitter @DawnBennettFMB or on Facebook Financial Myth Busting with Dawn Bennett.