Forexyard analysts take a moment away from their normal forex trading analyses and look into the crashing prices of Crude Oil. As prices drop, Forexyard analysts look into the possible scenarios that may dictate the future price of Oil while asserting a predicted value of $60 for Crude Oil before the end of November.
Nicosia, Cyprus -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/29/2008 -- Heading into it's second week below a near 1.5 year record low, Crude Oil prices seem to be showing signs of resilience. FOREXYARD analysts though aren't swayed by these events. With prices hovering near $65 per barrel, it is difficult for many forex and commodity traders to fathom a price for Oil even lower, but that is precisely what may occur if OPEC does little to change production levels. Analysts at FOREXYARD are convinced that without OPEC's production side intervention, prices can very well drop below $60 before the end of November. The only reason prices are currently being propped up, say FOREXYARD, is the fact that the world is entering the largest consumption period for oil; winter. As temperatures plunge in the US, Europe, and Russia, the demand for oil and oil products will in fact rise.
The demand structure could very well be the reasons OPEC is still in a wait and see stance. As markets bounce from record falls to massive gains, crude oil has simply dropped over the last 3 months. However, in general terms, $60 a barrel makes it near impossible for many companies in specific regions, like the US and Canada, to pull oil out of the ground. At $60, it simply isn't cost effective, and oil companies shift production back to regions where the cost of pulling the oil out of the ground is cheaper like in the North Sea, Arabia, and the Gulf of Mexico. Without higher prices, supply will actually decrease, thus pushing prices higher nonetheless.
In short, their are a number of scenarios to look for as the situation with oil is far more complex than that of the currency market or forex market. Oil prices are being supported by actual demand and supply issues governing future developments. As such, the scenarios are as follows: Barring any sudden moves by OPEC, prices should remain stable in and around $60-75 per barrel until year's end. If however, the dollar continues to rise beyond 1.20 EUR/USD, look for oil prices to drop as low as $50. The general trend from today's standpoint is a continuation of the appreciation of the USD (US Dollar) and as such a continuation of the fall in Crude Oil is to be expected. FOREXYARD is placing it's target price at a return to $60 a near 7.25% change from today, and this before the end of November. Commodity trading can be quite lucrative from that stand point.
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