Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 01/16/2015 --Low (But Positive) Japanese Freight Growth In 2015

Cargo volumes will grow in the low single percentage digits across Japan's main freight transport modes in 2015. Our forecast is based on a fairly sombre outlook for the wider economy - GDP growth of less than 1% - and higher, but still slowing foreign trade expansion (growth of 4.1%, down from an estimated 4.7% in 2014). By transport modes, rail freight will show the greatest dynamism.

BMI is bearish on Japan's economic prospects in 2015, with aggressively below-consensus projections for the economy. While some predict 3.0% GDP growth our forecast is for expansion of only 0.8%, down on an estimated 0.9% in 2014. We attribute this disappointing outlook to the steep fall of the yen versus the currencies of Japan's main trading partners and the sales tax hike in April 2014. GDP fell quarter-on-quarter in Q214 and Q314, pushing the economy into technical recession. We continue to believe the government's quantitative easing (QE) efforts are counterproductive, boosting inflation but not lifting purchasing power by consumers. Similarly, a weaker yen is good for exporters but not for domestic purchasing power. The key problem is that real wages continue to decline.

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Headline Industry Data

- Airfreight tonnage is forecast to grow by 1.20% y-o-y in 2015 to 3.06mn tonnes, comparable to estimated 2013 growth of 1.1%.
- Road freight tonnes hauled in 2015 forecast to grow 1.0% to 4.52bn tonnes.
- Rail freight tonnage will increase by 3.1% in 2015 to 46.266mn tonnes.
- Port of Tokyo 2015 tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.0% to 88.9mn tonnes.
- Port of Nagoya 2015 tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.0% to 219.184mn tonnes.
- The real value of Japanese trade will grow by 4.1% in 2015. Exports will grow by 4.0%, behind imports, which will gain 4.2%.

Key Trends And Developments

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The Japan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Japan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

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