Bruin Financial Management

Unemployment Rate Myth Debunked by Math and Economics


Corte Madera, CA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 03/25/2020 --The Unemployment Rate Myth, that being that the Headline Unemployment Rate has something to do with the rate of unemployment, has been promulgated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the media for decades. However, recent research, including a thorough quantitative and qualitative analysis, was unable to detect any relationship whatsoever between the Headline Unemployment Rate and the rate of actual unemployment. The recent research titled "Inside Donald Trump's Unemployment Rate" can be downloaded here for free.

Whatever the official BLS unemployment total ends up being once the Corona Virus population lockdown is in full swing, it's important for government entities to understand that the actual total of jobless people that want work is at least 17 million higher or else risk completely bungling the response. Generally speaking, this is what it is and there is no data to suggest otherwise. Go ahead and look for it until you're blue in the face, you won't find it, it doesn't exist. Even the BLS has admitted they don't have the data to contradict this fact.

Further, it is vital for government entities to understand in general just how much of the US population is already economically vulnerable thus physically vulnerable. When adjusting for inflation, approximately half of the US population was already in poverty prior to the pandemic (strictly not the 11.8% reported by the Census Bureau which uses a poverty threshold defined in 1964). An outstanding summary of this topic was done by Paul Buchheit in his article "Yes, Half of Americans Are in or Near Poverty: Here's More Evidence."

Several of the anemic economic stimulus proposals being floated by members of Congress thus far have illustrated a total and complete lack of understanding of basic economics and reality. A non-understanding of the pre-existing fragility of the US economy and population illustrated by the above points can lead politicians to choose pinchpenny measures inadequate to meeting the moment due to a belief that there is more durability in the financial situations of US households and thus the economy than is actually the case.