Although South Sudan avoided another production shut-in only after successful diplomatic efforts, political crisis was again on track to derail the oil sector. At the time of writing, South Sudan was in the midst of a civil war, which had already interrupted production that had been on its way to recovery. While the outcome of the conflict was uncertain, it underscored our caution with regard to both Sudan and South Sudan, where above-ground risks remain extremely elevated. Below ground, a similarly bearish outlook could prove problematic for the plans to construct a pipeline from South Sudan's fields to end its reliance on Khartoum. Similarly, we are less than optimistic over Sudan's push for dramatic production increases, retaining our overall bearish view for the combined oil sectors of Sudan and South Sudan.